Today’s Intrinsic Values
Stock Overview
Rundown***
EXPE – EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail)
Expedia Group is an online travel company, with a mission to power global travel for everyone, everywhere. Believing travel is a force for good. The company leverages its supply portfolio, platform and technology capabilities across an extensive portfolio of consumer brands, and provide solutions to its business partners, to empower travelers to efficiently research, plan, book and experience travel.
10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $8.6B/$7.7B, with 1 declining year and 65.4% YoY growth
EPS (USD): -1.80/0.22, with 4 declining years and currant year being negative
BV (USD): 10.30/20.19, with 6 declining years and -9.4% YoY decrease
FCF: $3.1B/$613M, with 3 declining years
Company does not pay a dividend
Share Count: Increased 7%
To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 25% per year growth for the next 10-years
SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1324424&owner=exclude
SEM – SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Health Care Providers & Services)
Select Medical is one of the largest operators of critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational health centers in the United States. Having operations in 46 states and the District of Columbia, with 104 critical illness recovery hospitals in 28 states, 30 rehabilitation hospitals in 12 states, and 1,881 outpatient rehabilitation clinics in 38 states and the District of Columbia.
10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $6.2B/$4.4B, with 0 declining years and 12.2% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 2.98/1.30, with 3 declining years and 54.4% YoY growth
BV (USD): 8.56/6.27, with 3 declining years and 11.2% YoY growth
FCF: $221M/$236M, with 6 declining years and -74.9% YoY decrease
Company began paying a dividend in 2021
Share Count: Increased 55%
The stock is fairly valued but only takes into account a 68% margin of safety when ideally it should be 55%
SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1320414&owner=exclude
AVNT – AVIENT CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Chemicals)
Avient is a premier formulator of specialized and sustainable material solutions that transform customer challenges into opportunities, bringing new products to life for a better world. The company’s products include specialty engineered materials, advanced composites, color and additive systems and polymer distribution. While also being a highly specialized developer and manufacturer of performance enhancing additives, liquid colorants and fluoropolymer and silicone colorants.
10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $4.8B/$3.5B, with 4 declining years and 48.6% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 2.51/2.06, with 4 declining years and 73.1% YoY growth
BV (USD): 19.31/10.45, with 4 declining years and 10.4% YoY growth
FCF: $133M/$128M, with 4 declining years and -15.8% YoY decrease
Dividend: Increased 340%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Increased 3%
To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 13% per year growth for the next 10-years
SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1122976&owner=exclude
FHN – FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Banks)
First Horizon businesses include fixed income, title services, home mortgage, wealth management, and commercial loan offices.
10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $3B/$1.7B, with 5 declining years and 16.6% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 1.74/0.95, with 5 declining years and -7.9% YoY decrease
BV (USD): 14.46/11.03, with 5 declining years and 8.8% YoY growth
FCF: $688M/$357M, with 4 declining years and 503.5% YoY growth
Dividend: Increased 1,400%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Increased 122%
To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 14% per year growth for the next 10-years
SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=36966&owner=exclude
SACH – SACHEM CAPITAL CORP. (HQ: USA/Industry: Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs))
Sachem Capital is a real estate finance company that specializes in originating, underwriting, funding, servicing and managing a portfolio of short-term (i.e., three years or less) loans secured by first mortgage liens on real property located primarily in the Northeastern United States and Florida. The company’s typical borrower is a real estate investor or developer who will use the proceeds to fund its acquisition, renovation, rehabilitation, development and/or improvement of residential or commercial properties and that are held for investment or sale.
8-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $20M/$9M, with 1 declining year and 53.8% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 0.44/0.34, with 3 declining years and 7.3% YoY growth
BV (USD): 4.85/3.72, with 2 declining years and 28% YoY growth
FCF: $27M/$8M, with 1 declining year and 200% YoY growth
Dividend: Increased 131%, with 2 declining years
Share Count: Increased 189%
The stock is trading below its margin of safety intrinsic value by 16%
SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1682220&owner=exclude