CMCSA – COMCAST CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Media)
Comcast is a global media and technology company with operations in five reportable business segments: Comcast Cable, NBCUniversal (media, studios and theme parks), and Sky. The company’s other business interests consist primarily of the operations of Comcast Spectacor, which owns the Philadelphia Flyers and the Wells Fargo Center arena in Philadelphia, and other business initiatives.

For the last 10-years Comcast has had mostly steady revenue, EPS, BV and FCF growth, though there has been one to two declining years for most of those categories. While the company continually increased the dividend by 200% and bought back 14% of the outstanding shares. However, for the last 6-months Comcast stock has sold-off more than twice the S&P500, reaching a fair price value. However, this price does not provide a sufficient margin of safety.

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1166691&owner=exclude

ALK – ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Airlines)
Alaska Air Group operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon, which operate as separate airlines, with individual business plans. Together it’s the fifth largest airline in the United States, offering service, connectivity and schedules from hub markets along the West Coast. Along with regional partners, the company flies to more than 120 destinations throughout North America.

As with the overall airline industry, Alaska Air was greatly impacted by COVID in 2020, being the company’s only year of negative EPS and FCF out of the previous 10-years. Prior to 2020, the company had continuously increased revenue since at least 2009. With the recent 2021 results the company was able return EPS and FCF positive again, along with revenue nearly doubling from 2020. Though the stock is trading at a fair price, however, it does not account for a sufficient margin of safety.

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=766421&owner=exclude

LPX – LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Paper & Forest Products)
Louisiana-Pacific is a leading provider of high-performance building solutions that meet the demands of builders, remodelers, and homeowners worldwide. With primary customers being homebuilding, retail, wholesale, and industrial businesses.

Louisiana-Pacific had more than a 200% stock price gain over the previous 2-years with the recent increases in building product prices. Along with 2021’s NI and FCF more than doubling from 2020, and revenue up more than 60%. However, over the previous 10-years there have been multiple years of declining sales and BV, along with negative EPS and FCF. To value the business at their current market price the company would need more than a 9% per year growth for the next 10-years.

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=60519&owner=exclude

VG – VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (HQ: USA/Industry: Diversified Telecommunication Services)
Vonage’s vision is to accelerate the world’s ability to connect. While the company is observing a secular change in the way business is done, with a fundamental shift in how communications technologies are being leveraged in almost every industry. Through its communications platform, Vonage’s strategy is to deliver a single leading cloud communications platform that powers customers’ and partners’ global engagement solutions using APIs, unified communications, and contact center innovations.

Vonage has had a steady increase of 200% in its stock price during the past 2-years, though leveling off over the past 6-months. With the company having mostly steady, but modest, growth in revenue and BV over the last 10-years, totaling more than 65% and 60% respectively. Although, the share count increase 8% during this time. To value the business at their current market price the company would need more than a 35% per year growth for the next 10-years.

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1272830&owner=exclude

CAPL – CROSSAMERICA PARTNERS UNT (HQ: USA/Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels)
CrossAmerica is primarily engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel and the ownership and leasing of real estate used in the retail distribution of motor fuel. While also generating revenues from the operation of company operated retail sites.

Over the last 10-years CrossAmerican has underperformed the S&P500 by a wide margin, however, the last 6-months the company has made a small gain when compared to the index. With CrossAmerican having inconsistent revenue, EPS, BV, FCF during this period. Along with a share count that has grown by more than 150%. The stock is currently trading at a price slightly above a fair value, however, this does not account for a margin of safety. Based on the company’s financial history, a 50%-60% margin of safety should be considered.

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1538849&owner=exclude