Today’s Intrinsic Values
Stock Overview
Rundown***
AMZN – AMAZON.COM, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail)
Amazon seeks to be Earth’s most customer-centric company. With the company guided by four principles: customer obsession rather than competitor focus, passion for invention, commitment to operational excellence, and long-term thinking. While in each of its segments, Amazon serves its primary customer sets, consisting of consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, advertisers, and employees.
Revenue grew steadily and at an astounding rate that totaled more than 650% over the last 10-years, with EPS, BV, and FCF/share all having exceptional growth during the same period. Although, 2021 did have negative FCF for the year, but the growth before this was also exceptional. With ROE for the last 6-years averaging more than 22%. The stock does trade at a premium with P/E over 45, and to value the business at their current market price the company would need more than a 36% per year growth for the next 10-years.
SEC link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1018724&owner=exclude
NUS – NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Personal Products)
Nu Skin Enterprises develops and distributes a comprehensive line of premium-quality beauty and wellness solutions in approximately 50 markets worldwide. In 2021 revenue was primarily generated by three primary brands: beauty brand, Nu Skin; wellness brand, Pharmanex; and anti-aging brand, ageLOC. The company operates in the direct selling channel, primarily utilizing person-to-person marketing to promote and sell its products, including through the use of social and digital platforms.
The company has shown limited revenue growth over the last 10-years by inconsistently increasing only 24%. With net income, EPS and FCF showing no consistency either. The steadiest performance has been the company’s ability to increase dividends every year by a total of 90%, and with an increasing BV helped by a reduction in shares of 14%. ROE over the same period has remained over 15% every year and averaged nearly 24%, with ROIC averaging well over 10%. To value the business at their current market price the company would need more than a 5% per year growth for the next 10-years.
SEC link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1021561&owner=exclude
AMGN – AMGEN INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Biotechnology)
Amgen is a biotechnology company committed to unlocking the potential of biology for patients suffering from serious illnesses by discovering, developing, manufacturing and delivering innovative human therapeutics. This approach begins by using tools like advanced human genetics to unravel the complexities of disease and understand the fundamentals of human biology.
For the last 10-years the company had mostly consistent but modest growth of 50%, with only two years of declining sales. This includes pretty steady growth of EPS and FCF/share, increasing 86% and 105% respectively. These per-share growths were helped by a steady stock buyback totaling 25% during the period. While ROE has been an exceptional performer over the 10-years averaging almost 40%, with the most recent four years averaging over 65%. Along with a ROIC which is typically over 10%. To value the business at their current market price the company would need more than a 10% per year growth for the next 10-years.
SEC link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=318154&owner=exclude
QRTEA – QURATE RETAIL, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Internet & Direct Marketing Retail)
Qurate Retail owns interests in subsidiaries and other companies which are primarily engaged in the video and online commerce industries. Through the company’s subsidiaries and affiliates, it operates in North America, Europe and Asia. With the principal businesses and assets that includes QVC, HSN, Zulily, Cornerstone Brands and other cost and equity method investments.
While the company had modest revenue growth of 40% over the last 10-years, there were five years of declining sales, to include inconsistent net income, EPS, BV and FCF. However, one pretty steady data point has been the company’s ability to buy back shares by 13% over the period. With ROE averaging around 10%, though over the past few years this has fluctuated from -8% to 28%. Currently the market is pricing the stock below a margin of safety intrinsic value, but it does come with volatility in the stock performance. This volatility is offset as the company typically pays a generous special dividend, particularly if purchased at a deep discounted price.
SEC link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1355096&owner=exclude
LYB – LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES NV (HQ: USA/Industry: Chemicals)
LyondellBasell Industries is a global, independent chemical company and one of the world’s top independent chemical companies based on revenue. The company participates globally across the petrochemical value chain and are an industry leader in many of its product lines.
The company did not have any revenue growth over the last 10-years, and with multiple years of declining sales, though 2021 was a return to their highs. Not consistently, but EPS and FCF/share have grown, along with a steady dividend that increased more than 200% during the period. While shares steadily decreased nearly 30%. With ROE averaging nearly 45% and ROIC nearly 25%. Currently the market is pricing the stock below a margin of safety intrinsic value, based on a sell-off that occurred in mid-2021.
SEC link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1489393&owner=exclude