UNP, PHM, CW, MCS & SIGA Intrinsic Values

Today’s Intrinsic Values

Stock Overview

Rundown***

UNP – UNION PACIFIC CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Road & Rail)
52 Week Lo/Hi Price: 195.68 / 278.94
Previous Closing Price: 234.30
Margin of Safety Intrinsic Value Price: 59.21

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $21.8B/$21.6B, with 4 declining years and 11.6% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 9.95/7.26, with 4 declining years and 26.3% YoY growth
BV (USD): 21.78/24.39, with 5 declining years and -15% YoY decrease
FCF: $6.1B/$4.2B, with 5 declining years and 8.6% YoY growth
Dividend: Increased 243%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Decreased -31%

To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 15% per year growth for the next 10-years

PHM – PULTEGROUP, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Household Durables)
52 Week Lo/Hi Price: 39.61 / 63.91
Previous Closing Price: 41.91
Margin of Safety Intrinsic Value Price: 64.16

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $13.9B/$8.4B, with 0 declining years and 26.2% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 7.43/3.29, with 2 declining years and 43.4% YoY growth
BV (USD): 28.64/16.14, with 0 declining years and 22.3% YoY growth
FCF: $931M/$719M, with 4 declining years and -46.1% YoY decrease
Dividend: Increased 280%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Decreased -32%

The stock is trading below its margin of safety intrinsic value by 42%

CW – CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Aerospace & Defense)
52 Week Lo/Hi Price: 111.26 / 162.98
Previous Closing Price: 154.11
Margin of Safety Intrinsic Value Price: 143.26

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $2.5B/$2.3B, with 4 declining years and 4.8% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 6.58/4.44, with 3 declining years and 37.1% YoY growth
BV (USD): 49.39/35.53, with 2 declining years and 12.3% YoY growth
FCF: $347M/$253M, with 5 declining years and 62.1% YoY growth
Dividend: Increased 103%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Decreased -13%

The stock is fairly valued but only takes into account a 86% margin of safety when ideally it should be 80%

MCS – THE MARCUS CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Entertainment)
52 Week Lo/Hi Price: 14.42 / 22.87
Previous Closing Price: 16.74
Margin of Safety Intrinsic Value Price: 4.31

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $458M/$515M, with 2 declining years and 92.4% YoY growth
EPS (USD): -1.42/0.45, with 5 declining years and currant year being negative
BV (USD): 14.07/16.22, with 3 declining years and -18.9% YoY decrease
FCF: $29M/$29M, with 7 declining years
Company did not pay a dividend last year
Share Count: Increased 7%

To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 14% per year growth for the next 10-years

SIGA – SIGA TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HQ: USA/Industry: Pharmaceuticals)
52 Week Lo/Hi Price: 5.66 / 9.82
Previous Closing Price: 6.85
Margin of Safety Intrinsic Value Price: 0.74

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $134M/$82M, with 5 declining years and 7.2% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 0.91/-0.08, with 4 declining years and 28.2% YoY growth
BV (USD): 1.45/-1.13, with 5 declining years and -0.7% YoY decrease
FCF: $11M/$7M, with 6 declining years and -84.7% YoY decrease
Company does not pay a dividend
Share Count: Increased 46%

To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 23% per year growth for the next 10-years

*Growth Grade is an indicator of a company’s growth potential, refer to the Terminology page for a full description.
**Industry averages based on the stocks that have been valued on the website and not for all stocks in an industry.
***Company business descriptions are mainly quoted from there recent 10-K/20-F filing with the SEC, refer to the filing for additional information.

Intrinsic values provided are intended as reference only. They should never be used as the sole means of valuing a company and/or making investment decisions. As with any investment, an investor should perform their due diligence before investing. This includes understand the investment risks, reviewing financial reporting documents, and consult an investment professional if necessary.

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