MGA, JBLU, CNC, FWRD & AROW Intrinsic Values

Today’s Intrinsic Values

Stock Overview

Rundown***

MGA – MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (HQ: Canada/Industry: Auto Components)
Magna is one of the world’s largest Tier 1 suppliers in the automotive space. The company has a complete vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing expertise, as well as product capabilities which include body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, active driver assistance, electronics, mechatronics, mirrors, lighting and roof systems. Magna also has electronic and software capabilities across many of these areas.

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $36.2B/$35.9B, with 3 declining years and 11% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 5.00/4.64, with 2 declining years and 98.4% YoY growth
BV (USD): 39.55/28.42, with 2 declining years and 16.5% YoY growth
FCF: $1.6B/$1.5B, with 4 declining years and -26.5% YoY decrease
Dividend: Increased 213%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Decreased -36%

The stock is fairly valued but only takes into account a 85% margin of safety when ideally it should be 70%

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=749098&owner=exclude

JBLU – JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Airlines)
JetBlue served over 100 destinations across the United States, the Caribbean and Latin America, and between New York and London. The company believes its differentiated product and culture combined with a competitive cost structure enables it to compete effectively in the high-value serving geographies.

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $6B/$6.1B, with 1 declining year and 104.2% YoY growth
EPS (USD): -0.57/0.67, with 2 declining years and currant year being negative
BV (USD): 12.34/11.03, with 1 declining year and 4.9% YoY growth
FCF: $647M/$285M, with 6 declining years
Company does not pay a dividend
Share Count: Decreased -8%

To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 10% per year growth for the next 10-years

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1158463&owner=exclude

CNC – CENTENE CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Health Care Providers & Services)
Centene is a leading multi-national healthcare enterprise that is committed to helping people live healthier lives. The company take a local approach with local brands and local teams to provide fully integrated, high-quality, and cost-effective services to government-sponsored and commercial healthcare programs, focusing on under-insured and uninsured individuals.

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $126B/$52B, with 0 declining years and 13.4% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 2.28/1.82, with 4 declining years and -26.9% YoY decrease
BV (USD): 45.44/20.62, with 0 declining years and 2.7% YoY growth
FCF: $3.3B/$1.4B, with 4 declining years and -28.9% YoY decrease
Company does not pay a dividend
Share Count: Increased 175%

To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 15% per year growth for the next 10-years

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1071739&owner=exclude

FWRD – FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Air Freight & Logistics)
Forward Air is a leading asset light freight and logistics company. Providing less than truckload, final mile, truckload and intermodal drayage services across the United States and in Canada. Offering premium services that typically require precision execution, such as expedited transit, delivery during tight time windows and special handling.

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $1.7B/$1.1B, with 1 declining year and 30.9% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 3.85/2.19, with 5 declining years and 358.3% YoY growth
BV (USD): 20.60/17.05, with 0 declining years and 1.9% YoY growth
FCF: $81M/$75M, with 5 declining years
Dividend: Increased 147%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Decreased -68%

To value the business at the current market price the company would need more than a 12% per year growth for the next 10-years

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=912728&owner=exclude

AROW – ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION (HQ: USA/Industry: Banks)
Arrow Financial is a holding company that owns banks and owns various non-bank subsidiaries, including an insurance agency, a registered investment adviser and a REIT.

10-Year Financial Summary (Recent/Average)
Revenue: $143M/$106M, with 1 declining year and 8.3% YoY growth
EPS (USD): 3.10/1.99, with 2 declining years and 21.1% YoY growth
BV (USD): 22.45/15.80, with 0 declining years and 10.2% YoY growth
FCF: $61M/$35M, with 4 declining years and 64.9% YoY growth
Dividend: Increased 31%, with 0 declining years
Share Count: Increased 7%

The stock is trading below its margin of safety intrinsic value by 21%

SEC filing link: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=717538&owner=exclude

*Growth Grade is an indicator of a company’s growth potential, refer to the Terminology page for a full description.
**Industry averages based on the stocks that have been valued on the website and not for all stocks in an industry.
***Company business descriptions are mainly quoted from there recent 10-K/20-F filing with the SEC, refer to the filing for additional information.

Intrinsic values provided are intended as reference only. They should never be used as the sole means of valuing a company and/or making investment decisions. As with any investment, an investor should perform their due diligence before investing. This includes understand the investment risks, reviewing financial reporting documents, and consult an investment professional if necessary.

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